The Tyrant is Forever Gone

Drum

Drum

Australian Skial God
Contributor
Mapper
Randinie said:
According to Stats.tf there is less than 1 refine metal per account in tf2, how is this to much metal? I do not argue that the idle account explosion had an impact but to me the main reason for keys increasing and items (hats/misc) decreasing is the fault of backpack.tf, and their TOTAL lack of rules. They allow anyone who can type to submit a price change, using outpost and other sites as proof. These sites only show offers to sale and offers to buy but not what the item sold for. This is flawed in more ways than can be counted. Worse yet is allowing an item to have an potential price change every day of the week. Another issue is the ranking system in which many players compete to have their price suggestions approved, so they can move up in the rankings. Another issue is time limits before approval, there isn't any, I have seen admin accept/approve changes that have only been up for just over 1 hour. All this combined, leads to an out of control price manipulation system for a site that washes its hand of any responsibility. The site is responsible, not because of what it does but because the majority of players in TF2 treat backpack.tf as the authority on pricing, backpack.tf is the site setting the prices, not the players.
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So, backpack.tf is the new spreadsheet.
Also, less than 1 refined metal per account? I don't believe that.
 
R

Randinie

Uncharitable Spy
Drum said:
So, backpack.tf is the new spreadsheet.
Also, less than 1 refined metal per account? I don't believe that.
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I find it odd as well but for 6 months I have watched the metal to account ratio and it has never come close to 1 to 1. Private BP's would have a lot of metal in them, probably enough to send the ratio over 1 to 1 but no where near enough to take to 2 to 1 ( 2 refine per back pack).

Question I have is if this stat is wrong, which I believe it is (stats.tf listing for how much metal in tf2) than what else is wrong? How much of the pricing in TF2 has been based off those stats? Is there even a way to check if it is accurate?? I know it updates slow, REAL slow but after 6 months and the ratio is not changing, something isn't right or there are far far fewer idle accounts than what people think there is.

Either way it is safe to safe that 1 ref per account is not to much. Just how much refine per account average is considered to much?

Do remember though it takes one account** 1 week to earn roughly 1 reclaim and 1 scrap(.44) in weapon drops or 3 weeks to earn 1.33 refine and that's IF the user converts the weapons to metal, which I would assume most do. Break it down to easier numbers, if you have 10 accounts, that's about 4.44 refine a week or 230.88 refine a YEAR for 10 accounts.

** rough average of drops per week, I have seen it as low as 3 and no higher than 15, not counting crate or hats, normal for me seems to be 7 to 9 per week, others I have ask say their normal is 9 to 11 per week per account.

Just how do we get more/accurate info for this? Metal is the MAIN reason finance.tf raises prices and this is the almost sole reason behind backpack.tf admins approving or rejecting price changes, no your vote has never counted on backpack.tf, its a placebo meant to make you feel 'special'.
 
Meowcenary

Meowcenary

Gaben's Own Aimbot
Contributor
Randinie said:
I find it odd as well but for 6 months I have watched the metal to account ratio and it has never come close to 1 to 1. Private BP's would have a lot of metal in them, probably enough to send the ratio over 1 to 1 but no where near enough to take to 2 to 1 ( 2 refine per back pack).

Question I have is if this stat is wrong, which I believe it is (stats.tf listing for how much metal in tf2) than what else is wrong? How much of the pricing in TF2 has been based off those stats? Is there even a way to check if it is accurate?? I know it updates slow, REAL slow but after 6 months and the ratio is not changing, something isn't right or there are far far fewer idle accounts than what people think there is.

Either way it is safe to safe that 1 ref per account is not to much. Just how much refine per account average is considered to much?

Do remember though it takes one account** 1 week to earn roughly 1 reclaim and 1 scrap(.44) in weapon drops or 3 weeks to earn 1.33 refine and that's IF the user converts the weapons to metal, which I would assume most do. Break it down to easier numbers, if you have 10 accounts, that's about 4.44 refine a week or 230.88 refine a YEAR for 10 accounts.

** rough average of drops per week, I have seen it as low as 3 and no higher than 15, not counting crate or hats, normal for me seems to be 7 to 9 per week, others I have ask say their normal is 9 to 11 per week per account.

Just how do we get more/accurate info for this? Metal is the MAIN reason finance.tf raises prices and this is the almost sole reason behind backpack.tf admins approving or rejecting price changes, no your vote has never counted on backpack.tf, its a placebo meant to make you feel 'special'.
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So you're suggesting backpack.tf admins are rigging the prices?
 
R

Randinie

Uncharitable Spy
I did not say that they were rigging anything. I merely stated the facts as they are listed. Voting has never mattered on backpack, at most it is a gauge for the admins there to consider but in the end they are suppose to consider the facts that can be seen. If backpack has issues, and dear God it does, it is the lack of rules, and the lack of any real proof for all their price suggestions/changes. Backpack.tf was a nice idea that has now failed completely in its original goal, their lack of rules is their undoing.
 
Questionable Moose

Questionable Moose

Banned
StaticVoid said:
That's right guys, the leader of the key inflation is done. He's finally no longer a menace to us and our keys. However, it will take a lot of work to be able to bring keys back down to the 2.33-2.66 refined range, but now that he himself is gone, his followers might stop as well.
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Supply and Demand.

This is a very basic economic model, please do not spread insufficient evidence when you do not understand how economy works. The price will continue to rise until a drastic change to the economy of the game is made by Valve; as portraited by a few examples here.
 
VEGAN DAD

VEGAN DAD

Australian Skial God
Contributor
More and more weapons are obtainable for free, these weapons are being turned into metal for free, keys still cost the same amount of real life money, the value of metal drops.
This isn't the evil scheme of some mastermind scary russian scammer like all you retard traders think it is, it's just simple economics. Something that is free will not equal the value of something that cost money.
 
hXcjedders

hXcjedders

Australian Skial God
People saying that surplus metal is the sole reason keys went up in price are dead wrong. There has to be more to it than that because keys would be higher than they already are. When you look at how fast keys went up in price youo cant really say that that increase was due to just having a lot of metal floating around. Irs just not that simple.
 
AfireAzuaki

AfireAzuaki

Epic Skial Regular
Idk,
We may have not to worry about key inflation, but the ref is pointless, if u are going to try crafting hats since u can get free hats in the Mann co store, and they're craftable too
 
Questionable Moose

Questionable Moose

Banned
hXcjedders said:
People saying that surplus metal is the sole reason keys went up in price are dead wrong. There has to be more to it than that because keys would be higher than they already are. When you look at how fast keys went up in price youo cant really say that that increase was due to just having a lot of metal floating around. Irs just not that simple.
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Keys are not becoming more valuable, so I cannot see how "would be higher than they already are" can be used as a evidence to strengthen your opinion. The value of keys have been pretty stable since late 2011.

Metal has a lower demand but the supply increases, this leads to a lower equilibrium price. Making metal less valuable, and therefore you will need more metal to buy one key. Supply and Demand, basic economics.

More information about basic supply and demand can be found here, if you still do not believe me. Read it yourself.
 
hXcjedders

hXcjedders

Australian Skial God
Questionable Moose said:
Keys are not becoming more valuable, so I cannot see how "would be higher than they already are" can be used as a evidence to strengthen your opinion. The value of keys have been pretty stable since late 2011.

Metal has a lower demand but the supply increases, this leads to a lower equilibrium price. Making metal less valuable, and therefore you will need more metal to buy one key. Supply and Demand, basic economics.

More information about basic supply and demand can be found here, if you still do not believe me. Read it yourself.
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You act as if supply and demand is the only thing that effects economics. If you want to sit there and believe that go right ahead.
 
Questionable Moose

Questionable Moose

Banned
hXcjedders said:
You act as if supply and demand is the only thing that effects economics. If you want to sit there and believe that go right ahead.
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I would love to hear your opinions about the inflation, I am not in any way an expert on economy but everything I have researched about this case leads me to believe that Supply and Demand is the biggest and most vicious effect.
We also had the Halloween event when a lot of keys were used, and I would love to hear from an experienced trader what sort of consequence that gave to the market.
 
hXcjedders

hXcjedders

Australian Skial God
Questionable Moose said:
I would love to hear your opinions about the inflation, I am not in any way an expert on economy but everything I have researched about this case leads me to believe that Supply and Demand is the biggest and most vicious effect.
We also had the Halloween event when a lot of keys were used, and I would love to hear from an experienced trader what sort of consequence that gave to the market.
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While I haven't taken the time to graph trends or anything, because honestly I don't care enough to do such...there was a long time keys hovered around 2.66 and then all of a sudden some catalyst sent them shooting upwards to the price we see today. If it was as simple as supply and demand, we'd have a nice stable curve to look at but there are other factors at play in this.

I think one of the huge factors is the marketplace as people have said before. Sure that adds to the supply/demand scenario, but the reason why I bring it up is because you keep saying it all has to do with weapon drops and that it's a natural trend.

There are other factors that go into it that would require actual time spent on research, but economics is never as simple as supply and demand. That's the point I'm trying to make.
 
Questionable Moose

Questionable Moose

Banned
hXcjedders said:
While I haven't taken the time to graph trends or anything, because honestly I don't care enough to do such...there was a long time keys hovered around 2.66 and then all of a sudden some catalyst sent them shooting upwards to the price we see today. If it was as simple as supply and demand, we'd have a nice stable curve to look at but there are other factors at play in this.

I think one of the huge factors is the marketplace as people have said before. Sure that adds to the supply/demand scenario, but the reason why I bring it up is because you keep saying it all has to do with weapon drops and that it's a natural trend.

There are other factors that go into it that would require actual time spent on research, but economics is never as simple as supply and demand. That's the point I'm trying to make.
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The jump from 2.66 was because of Spectral Halloween Special, when a lot of people bought keys, both the metal cost and the USD cost cost jumped up under this period.

But thanks for your input, I am really grateful that you could share a bit insight on this!
 
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