Hat drop probablity.

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M

Morbuzka

Rage-Inducing Forum Troll
Saw this on another site, gamespot.

Assuming that is the chance every half hour, then the laws of probability state that the chances are

5 hours - 3.25%
10 hours - 6.4%
15 hours - 9.44%
20 hours - 12.4%
30 hours - 18%
40 hours - 23.24%
50 hours - 28.15%
100 hours - 48.37%
150 hours - 62.9%
200 hours - 73.34%
300 hours - 86.24%
500 hours - 96.33%
1000 hours - 99.865%

I have logged over 600 hours of TF2 and haven't found a single drop hat. Fuck logic, fuck luck.
 
You had TF2 started up for 600 hours, but you only get drops while you are on a server.
 
YO DAWG

I heard you like people that dont give a single crap to your threads
So i replied in this thread
So people will not give a crap to this response while not giving a crap about your thread
 
These are stats from the old drop system though. If you play more than around ten hours a week, your chances of finding anything are effectively zero percent because of the cap. I think the drop chance is still around 2-3% for hats though. Never saw an official number from the wiki.

IMO if you go 10 weeks of full drops without a hat, you're somewhat unlucky. Past 20 weeks you're definitely in a dry spell.

Last two times I went several months without finding one I later found an Anger and Archimedes, the latter was selling for around 6 keys because the MvM update had just come out.
 
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