http://www.kongregate.com/games/stripedypaper/tf2-crate-sim
It took me around 700 dollars to get 2 unusuals...
I would use this to see my chances
1. Purple Confetti Bonk Helm - $370.00
2. Haunted Ghosts Hottie's Hoodie - $745.00
3. Blizzardy Storm Tippler's Tricorne - $950.00
4. Steaming...
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